Four days ago, I wrote that “I am very emotionally invested in Javier Milei’s success” because “Argentina is a modern-day role model of how to deal with an economic crisis and how to reverse economic decline.”

For today’s column, let’s contemplate whether my emotional investment will pay dividends. In other words, building on what I wrote last year, let’s speculate whether Milei will be reelected next year.

I’m going to share polling data, but first let’s look at political betting markets. My gut instinct is that these markets are likely to be more accurate than polls because people are putting their money on the line rather than just offering opinions.

Though keep in mind the betting markets were wrong about the Trump-Clinton race in 2016.

With that caveat, here’s the outlook for the 2027 Argentinian presidential election, starting with the Kalshi probabilities.

Fans of Milei should hope Kalshi is accurate because the Polymarket odds are not nearly as encouraging.

For what it’s worth (and I don’t like pointing this out), there’s been more betting on Polymarket. So if you believe in the wisdom of crowds, those odds may be more accurate.

Now let’s look at some polling data I’ve seen over the past few months.

We’ll start with some bad news, courtesy of Jeremy Horpedahl.

By contrast, here are some very encouraging numbers.

By the way, friends in Argentina tell me this data is too optimistic.

Here’s a poll with a much closer race, though Milei is still ahead.

Here’s another poll that is very good (perhaps too good) for Milei.

Young people continue to support Milei’s agenda.

And here’s one more presidential election matchup, though keep in mind my cautionary words that some of these numbers may be too optimistic.

Since I don’t know which pollsters have good reputations and bad reputations, I obviously can’t vouch for any of the above numbers. But maybe the overall outlook is correct, with Milei somewhat favored.

I’ll close by observing that Argentinians would be crazy to vote for the Peronist candidate next year.

It would be akin to Americans voting to return to the 1970s when Reagan ran for reelection in 1984.

P.S. Milei’s party enjoyed a big win in the 2025 mid-term elections. Hopefully a similar victory will happen in 2027.