The Republican Party suffered big losses in 1990 and 1992 after President George H.W. Bush broke his read-my-lips-no-new-taxes promise.
Based on all the polling data, it appears that Trump’s protectionist trade taxes (averaging more than $1,000 annually for every American household) are going to have a similarly negative effect on the GOP in 2026.
Here’s some recent polling data, staring with the fact that most Americans agree that trade taxes are taxes and that American consumers bear most of the burden.
Americans also recognize that these taxes are making life less affordable.
Trump supporters think Americans should pay more to help manufacturing.
But the polling data shows a giant gap between what Trump’s trade taxes are costing and what Americans might be willing to pay.*
And that’s just in theory.
In reality, Americans understand that Trump’s tax increases on trade have undermined the manufacturing sector.
Advancing American Freedom just issued a new report on affordability that listed 101 specific reforms to make America’s economy stronger.
Lots of great ideas, but let’s focus today on the one reform that Republicans (if they had any brains) should immediately implement.
Tariffs and other trade barriers on final consumer products imported from friendly nations should be reduced. …In 2025, the second Trump administration imposed substantial new tariffs on imports from every country in the world. …studies indicate that Americans bear the vast majority of the incidence of these taxes. …Congress (or the administration) should eliminate most new tariffs on final consumer products imported from countries that are not geopolitically hostile. o For the most part, this means eliminating tariffs imposed during the second Trump administration. Tariffs on goods from hostile countries (China, Russia, Belarus, Iran, North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela) should be maintained. …Lowering tariffs on final consumer goods would reduce the price of those goods and reduce the cost of living. Empirical evidence indicates that roughly 90% of tariffs are borne by consumers in the form of higher prices. International trade is mutually beneficial.
Sadly, Trump is economically illiterate on trade and Republicans in Congress are mostly unwilling to do the right thing and oppose his tax increases.
Do they deserve to lose the mid-term elections. Yes. Do the American people deserve what comes next? That not my bailiwick, but I know it won’t be pretty.
