Red Tape, Part II: The Economic Burden of Regulation

by Dan Mitchell | Mar 27, 2026

While he’s no Javier Milei, Donald Trump has done a very good job with regards to the burden of red tape.

Let’s start Part II of this series (click here for Part I) by looking at a chart that shows periods of deregulation in the United States.

As you can see, there was progress under Jimmy Carter, lots of deregulation under Reagan and Clinton, and then more progress during Trump’s non-continuous presidencies.

The above chart is from a recently published study by Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia and Matteo Iacoviello of the Federal Reserve in Washington.

However, the focus of today’s column is not Trump’s record. Instead, we want to learn about the economic impact of red tape in general.

With that in mind, here’s a summary of what the authors did and the results they found.

…we introduce a novel measurement approach. We construct a daily news-based deregulation index spanning 1960–2025 using large language models to classify newspaper articles. Our approach captures both the intensity and direction of regulatory change. …An independent Federal Register-based index corroborates the news measure while revealing that news coverage leads formal rule publication by eleven months—capturing forward-looking policy expectations crucial for understanding economic responses. …we document the evolution of U.S. deregulation over six decades. The index reveals distinct reform episodes… we provide evidence on the macroeconomic effects of deregulation. VAR analysis reveals that deregulation shocks boost GDP, productivity, investment, employment, stock prices, and corporate profits, while reducing price levels and economic uncertainty. …News-based measures of deregulation are powerful high-frequency signals that can not only foretell formal policy changes but also explain movements in macroeconomic and financial variables.

Here’s a chart from the study showing the impact of deregulation on various economic variables.

This is unambiguously good news, though the general direction of the results won’t be surprising to readers who have read my other columns on regulation and economic performance (see hereherehereherehereherehere, and here).

Shifting back to Trump, he’s helping the economy by cutting back on red tape. Whether the benefits of his deregulation are enough to offset the damage of his protectionism is an interesting question.

Let’s close by looking at a final set of charts measuring deregulatory periods in other nations/regions.

You’ll notice lots of good policy during the “Washington Consensus” in the 1980s and 1990s.

P.S. Thomas Sowell and Milton Friedman were predictably wise on the issue of red tape.

P.P.S. To learn more about the burden of red tape, click here and here.

P.P.P.S. Here’s a ranking of which states are best and worst with regard to red tape.

P.P.P.P.S. There’s some evidence that smaller jurisdictions are more sensible on regulatory issues.