Part IX of the Global Entitlement Crisis: Will Spain Be the First Domino?

by Dan Mitchell | Oct 20, 2026

Since 3/4ths of readers are from the United States, I suspect yesterday’s column will garner the most attention in this series. Though maybe the riots and disarray in France will cause the column about that nation’s looming fiscal crisis to get more attention.

I think the experiences of all the countries are important. They teach that bad things happen when the burden of government expands.

And that’s definitely true for Spain. Here’s a look at what’s happened this century. As has been the case for all nations in this series, there’s been fiscal deterioration.

This grim data echoes what I found when writing last September about Spain’s fiscal policy.

And Spain doesn’t have a large gap between gross debt and net debt (like Japan and Canada), so red ink of nearly 100 percent of GDP is a problem.

The good news for Spain is that financial markets (so far) do not seem to view the country as high risk, at least when compared to other nations.

Yes, interest rates have increased, but the blue line (interest rates for national debt) have no increased faster than the black line (average interest rates).

Now for some bad news.

Government debt numbers reflect the borrowing that has already taken place.

To gauge a nation’s fiscal status, it’s also important to look at future spending commitments. On that basis, Spain is in a deeper hole than any other country.

Like many other European nations (Iceland, Switzerland, Netherlands, Denmark, and Sweden), Spain should have shifted to personal retirement accounts.

But it didn’t make that wise choice. And the long-run cost will be staggering.