The left has failed in Latin America, as shown by bad-to-horrible economic numbers in nations such as Brazil, Cuba, Argentina (pre-Milei, of course), Mexico, Bolivia, and Venezuela.
So we shouldn’t be too surprised that the region is now moving to the right (blue), particularly in South America.
This shift began with Javier Milei’s big victory in late 2023.
And Colombia moved to the right just yesterday, electing a right-wing candidate in a polarized election.
Is this a trend?
The answer seems to be yes, as reported by Ana Ceballos and Kate Linthicum for the L.A. Times.
Colombian presidential candidate Abelardo de la Espriella has vowed to crush criminal groups and slash government programs. …De la Espriella, a political newcomer who built his campaign around gym workout videos and vows to “disembowel” the left, is part of a new wave of far-right, MAGA-aligned politicians in Latin America openly borrowing from Trump’s playbook, presenting themselves as outsiders who will trim the government, curtail immigration and militarize law enforcement. …More Latin Americans now identify with the right than at any time over the last two decades, according to polling firm Latinobarómetro. A series of conservatives have won presidential elections in recent years… Among Trump’s many allies are Argentina’s Javier Milei, a libertarian firebrand… Many analysts cautioned that Latin America operates on a pendulum, swinging every few years between right and left. “There’s a lot of evidence that voters are just unhappy and voting for the opposition, and then losing patience very quickly with whoever is in office,” said Benjamin Gedan, director of the Latin America Program at the Stimson Center.
Since I don’t like statist economic policy, I’m glad leftists are now losing elections in Latin America.
But I want to caution readers that it’s not always good news when rightists win elections. At least not if you care about economic policy.
The key question to ask is whether the right-wingers are MAGA or Milei.
I prefer the Milei approach. But I don’t need to regurgitate the economic argument. Instead, I want to make the political argument.
The L.A. Times article quoted above noted that rightists may be getting elected solely because of a pendulum effect. The left has failed, so voters are trying the right.
But the pendulum swings both ways. In past years, there have been supposedly right-wing governments in Brazil, Chile, Argentina, and elsewhere.
Why did they then lose subsequent elections?
The answer is that they did not engage in pro-market reforms. And because there was no economic benefit for voters, the pendulum swung back to the left.
The bottom line is that right-wing governments need to learn from my Fourth Theorem of Government and copy Milei, not Trump. At least with regards to economic policy.
P.S. Here’s a different map showing the political shift in South America.
The two maps might not be fully consistent. If any readers are experts on South American political developments, feel free to add your two cents.
