Over the years, I’ve shared several multi-decade comparisons of per-capita economic output in hopes of educating people about the downside of having a state-run economic policy.
Sadly, I don’t think all this evidence has been persuasive to leftists. Many of them (see here, here, here, here, here, and especially here) remain hopeless apologists for Cuba’s totalitarian socialist dictatorship.
But maybe, just maybe, the dictators have figured out there’s a problem.
Here are some excerpts from an AP report by Andrea Rodriquez.
Cuba’s powerful Communist Party on Thursday approved an emergency economic package featuring unprecedented free-market measures aimed at opening up the struggling island’s economy… It envisions expanding opportunities for private enterprise, greater autonomy for municipalities and state-owned companies and measures to attract additional foreign investment, including from Cubans abroad. …Díaz-Canel said the emergency plan and the policy document prepared by the Communist Party’s Central Committee were shaped by the experiences of China and Vietnam, two communist countries that have introduced market-oriented economic reforms while maintaining one-party rule.
Since I’ve written about the partial economic reforms in both China and Vietnam, that approach would be a decent first step.
Though only a first step. Both of those countries still have a long way to go if they ever hope to become rich.
So hopefully Cuba will do a better job of liberalizing its economy (assuming, of course, that the AP report is accurate and that the island’s dictators actually do take steps in the right direction).
I’m a tiny bit optimistic that reform will happen, if only because Cuba has hit rock bottom. Here are some excerpts from a New York Timesstory earlier this year by David Adams and Frances Robles.
Cuba is enduring the worst economic moment in the 67-year history of its communist revolution. While the island nation has endured periodic episodes of mass migration, food shortages and social unrest in decades past, never before have Cubans experienced such a wholesale collapse of the social safety net… In recent years, Cubans complained because the monthly allotments of rice, beans and other food staples that they received from government ration cards lasted only 10 days. Now the cards are virtually worthless because food is rarely available at the government ration stores. …The lack of gasoline has led to sporadic trash pickup, which has led to outbreaks of mosquito-borne illnesses like dengue and chikungunya. Medicines are nearly impossible to find without relatives abroad to send them. …Cuba’s financial collapse has fueled an extraordinary exodus — about 2.75 million Cubans have left the country since 2020, according to Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, a Cuban demographer. While the official population is about 9.7 million people, Mr. Albizu-Campos said 8.25 million would be more accurate.
Speaking of emigration, the number of people who have escaped is dwarfed by the number who still want to escape.
If you want to know how Cuba became such a basket case, Carlos Martinez has a great summary at EconLib.
Here are some excerpts.
Between 1959 and 1968, the regime nationalized every sector of the Cuban economy. By 1963, roughly 95% of industry was in state hands; by 1968, private enterprise had been effectively eliminated. …in the 1950s (before Castro’s takeover), Cuba’s living standards were among the highest in Latin America, with per capita income levels comparable to those of countries like Italy. But that pre-revolutionary economy, grounded in markets and private property, was replaced by Soviet-style central planning, with severe social consequences. Between 1959 and 1981, some estimates suggest that between 35,000 and 141,000 Cubans died under the regime. …Inflation is estimated to be anywhere from 20% to 100%. A recent survey reports that 89% of Cubans now live in extreme poverty. …The regime now faces a perfect storm. It has lost people through mass emigration, and with them the manpower necessary to keep even basic services running. It has lost its ideological legitimacy. It has lost the ability to blame outside forces.
But there is some good news in the article.
A recent poll by CubaData reveals a striking ideological shift: 21.7% of Cubans now identify as “liberal or pro-market”—seven times the 3% who still consider themselves “staunchly socialist.” …The broader numbers are even more telling: 79% of all Cubans believe socialism is in decline… Even Cuban economists largely agree that the island’s problems stem not from the U.S. embargo but from the regime’s own policies.
A very clever response, but perhaps not quite as good as this one.
P.S. I indicated above that I don’t automatically believe that Cuba’s dictators will do the right thing, regardless of what they are now saying. Why am I skeptical? Because we heard similar rhetoric and similar pronouncements more than 15 years ago.
