A Mid-Year Assessment of the Tepid Trump Economy

by Dan Mitchell | Jul 3, 2026

Even though I’m a lovable guy, my Democratic friends were constantly upset with me a few years ago because I pointed out how Biden’s policies were producing mediocre economic results.

More recently, my Republican friends have been angry with me because I’ve been criticizing some of Trump’s bad policies and noting that they are having bad effects.

Now, the GOPers will get even more upset with me because I’m going to share some updated numbers showing that the economy’s performance is anemic.

Let’s start by looking at some data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We’ll start with the employment-population ratio. As you can see, the share of the adult population with jobs has been declining since Trump regained the White House.

The data for labor-force participation shows a very similar trend.

Since our economic output is dependent on the quality and quantity of labor and capital, it’s not good news that fewer adults are gainfully employed.

Now let’s focus on the people who do have jobs. Are they earning more money?

According to a different set of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation-adjusted earnings are – at best – stagnant over the past 12 months.

And if we exclude managers and other professionals and look at the numbers for “production and nonsupervisory employees,” the earnings data is even more anemic.

Does this data mean the economy is in recession? No.

Do these numbers mean we are falling behind other nations? Since their policies are generally worse, the answer is mostly no.

What these numbers do show, however, is that America should be growing faster. We need the policies we got under Reagan and Clinton, not the dirigisme we’ve been getting from Biden and Trump.

P.S. Almost overnight, Trump could produce much better economic results if he reversed his protectionist policies. Sadly, he’s illiterate on trade issues.

P.P.S. Some of my Republican friends will claim I’m being unfair because Trump inherited a sub-par economy. That’s a reasonable point. My response to them is that Trump isn’t making things better. His good policies (regulation and tax policy) are being offset by his bad policies (protectionismexcessive spending, and intervention).