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Calculating America’s Lead over Europe

Calculating America’s Lead over Europe

Posted on May 14, 2025 by Dan Mitchell

There’s an enormous amount of data showing that people in the United States enjoy much higher livings standards than Europeans.

That’s not too surprising since most European governments have adopted large-sized welfare states while Americans are (comparatively!) lucky in that we have a medium-sized welfare state.

That’s all very straightforward and uncontroversial.

What’s not completely clear, however, is whether the United States has a growing economic advantage.

I’ve cited several data sources showing that America is expanding its lead over Europe. And I saw this tweet today that included a chart making the same point.

Since I’m patriotic (in the proper sense), I like seeing this kind of data. I want everyone to get richer, but I can’t resist wanting Americans to do better than everyone else.

That being said, my guy instinct is that there’s something quirky in the data. Simply stated, I question whether France, Germany, and U.K. were almost as rich as the United States in 2008. And I also question whether we’ve grown that much faster than those nations since then.

So I decided to check the Maddison database.

Lo and behold, this chart (all numbers in this case based on inflation-adjusted 2011 dollars) shows that my skepticism is warranted. The United States has always enjoyed an economic advantage, but the lead is not expanding at a rapid rate.

However, I admit to some misgivings about this chart, especially when looking at Germany’s comparatively strong economic performance.

My gut instinct is that policy has significantly deteriorated in recent years (more spending and green energy), so I wouldn’t expect Germany to out-perform the U.K. and France.

So I decided to look at the IMF’s big database.

Interestingly, the IMF’s data is much closer to the World Bank data in the first chart.

Though there are differences. The World Bank numbers preposterously showed France ahead of the U.S. in one year, while the IMF numbers (almost as preposterously) show occasional leads for Germany and the United Kingdom.

The bottom line is that I don’t know which numbers are most accurate. Maybe somewhere in between all three data sources.

Regardless, all of the numbers lead to the same conclusion, which is that it would be very smart for the U.S. to avoid becoming more like Europe.  Which is why yesterday’s column was so critical of Senator Josh Hawley.

P.S. I am willing for America to become more like one European nation. And I would like to copy the economic policy of a certain Asian nation.

P.P.S. If you want to laugh at European statism, click here.


Competitiveness Economics England Europe France Germany United Kingdom United States
May 14, 2025
Dan Mitchell

Dan Mitchell

Dan Mitchell is co-founder of the Center for Freedom and Prosperity and Chairman of the Board. He is an expert in international tax competition and supply-side tax policy.

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