The Netherlands and the 20th Theorem of Government

by Dan Mitchell | Aug 30, 2025

Ever since unveiling my 20th Theorem of Government, I’ve mostly shared bad news about jurisdictions with profligate politicians (FranceBrazilColombiaMarylandWashingtonAustraliaGermany, and Canada).

My only positive example has been Greece, though I was being somewhat charitable since I was highlighting a five-year period where spending grew by more than 4 percent annually (which was progress since nominal GDP grew more than 8 percent annually over the same years).

Today, I’m going to cite a much more impressive example of spending restraint.

Here’s a chart – based on IMF data – showing that the Netherlands had a seven-year period last decade where spending grew by an average of less than 1 percent annually.

The chart shows the two big consequences on Dutch fiscal discipline.

  • The burden of government spending declined by more than 6-percentage points of GDP.
  • Spending restraint turned a large budget deficit into a small budget surplus.

The Netherlands is a rare positive case study for my 20th Theorem.

But it’s more than that.

Any nation that has a multi-year period with spending growth averaging less than 2 percent annually also qualifies for my Golden Rule Club.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that fiscal policy has deteriorated a bit since the 2010-2017 period.

Government is now consuming 44.7 percent of GDP. That may not seem like an enormous shift, but keep in mind that the Netherlands has some long-term fiscal challenges.

So any slippage is bad news.

P.S. One bright spot is that the Netherlands has a well-regarded system of personal retirement accounts, which I’ve ranked as 4th-best in the world.

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Image credit: Alfred Grupstra | CC0 1.0.