In 2022, I wrote a two-part series (here and here) about fiscal decay in Illinois.
I’m motivated to add Part III today because of this chart from Chris Edwards, which shows how many upper-income taxpayers are moving into a state compared to how many are escaping.
As you can see, the worst-ranked state is Illinois.
This data matters because these are the kinds of taxpayers that are the big net payers.
They also are very mobile. If they feel they are mistreated by their state governments, they have the ability to migrate. And it’s no surprise to see that high-tax jurisdictions are suffering the biggest outflows.
At the risk of understatement, it is a very bad indicator to be near the bottom. And the state at the bottom must be a basket case.
If you want to understand why Illinois is in last place, check out these excerpts from George Will’s latest column in the Washington Post.
Formerly the Land of Lincoln, now the Land of Blue State Governance Blues, Illinois…population has declined for 10 consecutive years. …Since 2000, more than 1.5 million have fled, costing an estimated $3.6 billion in income tax revenue in 2022 alone, a year the net loss of 87,000 residents subtracted $9.8 billion in adjusted gross income. In the past six years, $47.5 billion AGI has left. …Fewer Illinoisans are employed than when Democrat J.B. Pritzker became governor in 2019. The state’s 5 percent unemployment rate is the nation’s third-worst; its Black unemployment rate is second-worst. …Last year, more than 140,000 government workers and retirees in Illinois received more than $100,000 in salaries or pensions. …its unfunded state pensions liability has, according to the state, grown under Pritzker from $137 billion to $142 billion. …according to Moody’s, state pension debt is nearly $300 billion, and state and local shortfalls reached $530 billion four years ago.
By the way, it’s not just horrible fiscal policy.
You can make a strong argument that Illinois is even worse when it comes to education policy.
Under billionaire Pritzker, who sends his children to private schools…, Illinois this year became the first state ever to retreat from school choice (18 have created or expanded choice programs since 2023), killing, to please teachers unions, a small tax-credit scholarship program that served mostly poor and minority pupils. …although Illinois spends almost $24,000 per pupil (up 97 percent since 2007), only 35 percent of pupils read at grade level (1.2 million do not) and only 27 percent are proficient in math (1.4 million are not). In Decatur, 7 percent can read at grade level; in Peoria, 15 percent. In 67 schools, no child recently tested proficient in math; in 37, none were proficient in reading. Yet officials celebrate the state’s high (87.6 percent) graduation rate. …school administrators (18 superintendents made more than $300,000 in 2022) have increased 70 percent since 1998 while enrollments have declined about 100,000.
You may be wondering why Illinois lawmakers tolerate such results. Well, it all makes sense when you consider the 1st Theorem of Government.
P.S. No wonder Illinois has a big lead in the poll asking people to predict the state that will be the first to go bankrupt (and when that happens, it will be critical to stop politicians in DC from providing a bailout).
Dan Mitchell is co-founder of the Center for Freedom and Prosperity and Chairman of the Board. He is an expert in international tax competition and supply-side tax policy.
