I’ve never been a fan of Donald Trump, though my criticism has always focused on his support for bad policies such as wasteful spending, foolish protectionism, and corrupt cronyism.
Today I’m going to change hats and pretend to be a political pundit so I can offer some unsolicited advice to my Republican friends.
If they like to win elections, they need to realize that Donald Trump is bad news.
Yes, he beat a very unpopular Hillary Clinton in 2016, but every subsequent election has produced Republican disappointment.
- The 2018 midterm elections.
- The 2020 presidential election.
- The 2022 midterm elections.
What should most upset the GOP is that Trump has given Democrats control of the Senate twice. First, by depressing Republican turnout in the two Georgia runoff contests with his sore-loser routine about stolen elections in the 2020 cycle. Second, by convincing Republican voters to nominate inferior candidates in the 2022 cycle.
But the fault is not entirely with Trump.
As illustrated by this cartoon, a significant share of Republican voters like Trump and this gives him enormous power over the GOP.
The interesting question to answer is why many rank-and-file Republicans feel so loyal to Trump – even though he often supported bad policies and has helped Democrats gain power in Washington.
I actually answered that question early last year. Here’s some of that column.
One thing that surprised me over the past four yeas is that I found strong support for Trump from grassroots conservative Republicans. Yes, they didn’t like his fiscal profligacy and they mostly didn’t like his protectionism, but they did like the fact that he was a “fighter,” unlike so many (but not all) Republican politicians who get cozy with the DC establishment. They also figured he was worth supporting because he was so reviled by the establishment media (i.e., the enemy of my enemy is my friend).
I think that analysis still applies, but let’s dig deeper. Another problem is that Republican voters think anti-Trump GOP politicians must be bad (closet Democrats, or something like that).
That may be true in some cases, with Mitt Romney being an obvious example.
But that binary analysis – the Trump camp vs the every-other-Republican camp – is woefully inadequate.
I think it’s more accurate (though obviously simplified) to look at the Republican Party as having three camps. And here’s a Venn diagram with my amateur depiction of what unites and divides them.
I’m sure many of you already know my conclusion, which is that the Republican Party should opt for Reaganism.
That’s the approach that reflects good policy and good politics.
I’ve written many times why it is good policy, so I’ll conclude by elaborating on why it is good politics.
Simply stated, Trump voters don’t trust establishment Republicans. They view them as proponents of things they don’t like such as bailouts, globalism, and amnesty.
And establishment Republicans obviously don’t like Trump and Trumpie candidates, even if only for stylistic reasons.
Reaganism, by contrast, can unite all the factions. And when I say Reaganism, I’m not just talking about tax cuts. What we need is the full market-friendly Reagan agenda of spending restraint, deregulation, trade expansion, and sound money.
