There are two reasons why I generally don’t write much about government debt.
- First, red ink is not desirable, but it’s mostly just the symptom of the far more important problem of excessive government spending.
- Second, our friends on the left periodically try to push through big tax increases by hypocritically exploiting anxiety about red ink.
The one thing I can state with full certainty, however, is that tax increases are guaranteed to make a bad situation worse.
We’ll get a weaker economy (perhaps much weaker since the left is now fixated on pushing for the kinds of tax increases that do the most damage).
Equally worrisome, the biggest impact of a tax increase is that politicians won’t feel any need to control spending or reform entitlements.
Indeed, it’s quite likely that they’ll respond to the expectation of higher revenue by increasing the spending burden.
To complicate matters further, any tax increase probably won’t generate that much additional revenue because of the Laffer Curve.
All of which explains why budget deals that include tax increases usually lead to even higher budget deficits.
This analysis is very timely and relevant since advocates of bigger government somehow claim that the new fiscal forecast from the Congressional Budget Office is proof that we need new taxes.
So I’m doing the same thing today I did back in January (and last August, and in January 2019, and many times before that starting back in 2010). I’ve crunched the numbers to see what sort of policies would be needed to balance the budget without tax increases.
Lo and behold, you can see from this chart that we wouldn’t need draconian spending cuts. All that’s needed for fiscal balance is to limit spending so that it grows slightly less than 1 percent per year (and this analysis even assumes that they get to wait until 2022 before imposing a cap on annual spending increases).
To be sure, politicians would not want to live with that kind of limit on their spending. So I’m not optimistic that we’ll get this type of policy in the near future.
Especially since the major parties are giving voters a choice between big-spender Trump and big-spender Biden.
But the last thing that we should do is worsen the nation’s fiscal outlook by acquiescing to higher taxes.
P.S. It’s worth noting that there was a five-year nominal spending freeze between 2009 and 2014 (back when the Tea Party was influential), so it is possible to achieve multi-year spending restraint in Washington.
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Image credit: pxhere | CC0 Public Domain.
