Actually, if you want good election predictions, don’t listen to me. I’m just an amateur without any special expertise. If you want real knowledge, I encourage you to visit these three sites:
Realclearpolitics.com, which has good summaries of polling data and predictions based on that data.
Intrade.com, which is a political betting market site, so you are seeing estimates based on people defending their views with cold, hard cash.
Fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com, which is Nate Silver’s site and seems thoroughly researched.
But since several of you have emailed for my thoughts, I predict the number of House Republicans will jump from 178 to 242, for a gain of 64.
In the Senate, the GOP delegation will climb from 41 to 48 (I hope all of you can figure out that’s a gain of seven seats). Since there’s a lot of attention being paid to the Nevada race, I will specifically predict that Harry Reid goes down.
By the way, for any of you in southern in Florida, I’ll be at the Allen West victory party tonight. Stop by and say hello.
